Saturday, November 30, 2013

The Week Ahead: Where in the World to Invest?

Even as the US stock market climbs higher into the "nosebleed zone" and it remains his favorite, MoneyShow's Tom Aspray thinks that the place to be in 2014 will be overseas markets.

It was another week where the stock market surprised the majority by continuing higher despite the already lofty levels of the major averages. The S&P 500 broke through short-term resistance on Wednesday and closed the week just below the 1800 level.

Oftentimes, there is selling when a market average reaches a round number like 1800 but it is also possible this time that a strong close above this level will move more money off the sidelines. Mutual fund managers have a relatively high level of cash on hand and many are not keeping pace with their benchmarks. A failure to match or exceed the benchmarks could jeopardize their year-end bonuses.

Many continue to voice concern over the high level of bullish sentiment, which implies that the smaller investors have joined the party. But Charles Schwab CEO Walter Bettinger commented on CNBC that only about half of their clients think it is a good time to be investing in equities. Furthermore he said "Our clients are engaged, but they're very cautious about the markets overall."

In last week's column, I shared the reasons why I did not think a bubble was forming even though the market is overextended. This is especially true when you look at the investing public as most are now scared to death of the stock market, unlike 2000.

chart

Just a year ago the stock market was bottoming after the post election correction as the S&P hit a low of 1343.65 on November 16. This date it labeled on the chart and shows that one of the star performers since that low has been Japan's NK225, which is up over 63%.

The chart of the NK225 shows that resistance at line a has just been overcome even though some are having doubts about their economic plan. From a technical standpoint, it was clear in early 2013 that both the NK225 and Japanese yen had undergone long-term trend changes that should last many years. This is still my view.

The Spyder Trust (SPY) and German DAX show very similar patters as both are up over 31%, just half of Japan's gain. The emerging markets as measured by Vanguard FTSE Emerging Market (VWO) is now up 2.3% since the November 2012 lows. Since I do feel a more meaningful correction is likely in the next few months (see What to Watch), it should present a buying opportunity. But should you just concentrate on stocks in the US or should you also look elsewhere?The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Market (VWO) was discussed in more detail in last August's A Contrary Bet for 2014? as I though it might be a star performer in 2014 and advised a dollar cost averaging strategy to get invested. As it turned out, VWO bottomed the following week and had a nice rally into the late October high, but then dropped as many turned became skeptical of the group.

chart

The weekly chart of VWO shows that it may finally be ready to move significantly higher as last week it dropped below its quarterly pivot at $40.32 before closing higher. The OBV had broken its major downtrend in early October and has turned up this week.

Best Insurance Stocks To Own For 2014

Part of my rationale for looking at the emerging markets was that I thought that the US and Eurozone economies were actually doing much better This growth, I felt, should spread to the emerging market economies in the coming year.

Argentina and Dubai have been the two top performers in 2013, up 86.4% and 72.6% respectively, with the US just below Greece on the list. This would have been tough to predict at the start of the year as the wide range of data gives you the ability to predict the US market's direction. Though a sharp correction is possible before the end of the year, we should finish the year with the double-digit gains I was looking for last December.

Though there has been some softness in the recent economic data for the Eurozone lately, which their rate cut may offset, their economies seem to be in an improving trend. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMIT rose to 52.1 in October, which was a 2?-year high.


chart

In an early November press release they stated "The data signaled expansions  in the US, the euro area, China , Japan, the UK, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, Russia, and Brazil." Of course Russia and Brazil have two of the worst-performing stock markets this year, down 5.8% and 15% respectively.

NEXT PAGE: What to Watch

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Friday, November 29, 2013

Dow Sets New Record As Stocks Inch Higher

U.S. stocks inched higher at Monday's closing bell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new record high during a day that afforded investors little excitement and a chance to consider their next move following last week's big gains.

The Dow gained 21.07 points, or 0.13% to close at 15,782.85, another record high. On Friday, it surged 168 points, or 1.1%, closing at a record after better-than-expected October jobs data.

The S&P 500 index climbed 1.25 point, or 0.07% to close at 1,771.86, while the Nasdaq Composite reversed an early loss to rise 1.67 points, or 0.04% to end the day at 3,919.79.

Despite the new record highs, it was a nothing sort of day investors. No major economic releases were issued today due to the Veterans Day holiday. The Treasury market was closed. No significant corporate earnings reports hit the wire.

Bill Stone, Chief Investment Strategist at PNC Asset Management Group, told Barrons.com:

Quiet market today with the lack of both US economic and earnings data. Also markets likely lacked some participants thanks to the holiday and the resultant bond market closure. Following on last week’s data, investors will likely be hungry for US economic data to better gauge the possibility of a Fed taper as soon as December.

Last week's stock market rally was fueled by growing confidence in the U.S. jobs market after the Labor Department said employers added 204,000 jobs last month.

Some speculate those figures open the door for the Fed to start tapering its stimulus programs. Others have been skeptical of the stock market's steady climb, worried that recent highs are not sustainable.

Late this week, Federal Reserve chairwoman nominee Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing on Thursday in front of the U.S. Senate banking committee

European stocks nudged higher in quiet trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 tacked on 0.6%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.3%.

In Asia, the Philippines PSE Composite dropped 1.4% after the country was devastated by a typhoon. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.3% and China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.16%.

The euro edged higher against the dollar. December crude-oil futures rose 0.6% to $95.14 a barrel, while gold futures shed 0.3% to $1,281.00 an ounce.

In corporate news:

Google (GOOG) retreated on Monday after it was removed from Morgan Stanley's Best Idea List, while Twitter (TWTR) rose during its third trading day as a public company.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) gained 4.9%, after losing 15% last week on the heels of yet another Model S car fire that resulted in major front-end damage.

Top Canadian Stocks To Watch Right Now

J.C. Penney (JCP) advanced 4%. Last week, the retailer said its same-store sales rose 0.9% in October, the first rise since December 2011. Meanwhile, Best Buy (BBY) added 4.5%.

Shares of ViroPharma (VPHM) spiked nearly 26% after the rare-disease company said it was being acquired by U.K. biopharmaceutical firm Shire (SHPG). Shire is paying $4.2 billion, or $50 a share, to ViroPharma. Shire's ADRs rose 0.7%

FirstEnergy (FE) fell 5.7%. The power company last week narrowed its full-year outlook.

Denbury Resources (DNR) shares dropped 5.9% after oil-and-natural-gas explorer on Sunday announced that it will initiate quarterly dividend and raised its share repurchase plan to $250 million from the $109 million remaining in its program.

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014

As counter-intuitive as it may seem, the US dollar strengthened for most of last week, despite the nomination of Janet Yellen as Fed chair and the continued partial closure of the US Federal government. While acknowledging the disruptions of the markets by the unprecedented expansion of central bank balance sheets and the new regulatory environment, the markets still appear to be functioning as a large discount mechanism.

The abyss (of a US default) was approached and many institutional investors needed to avoid exposure to short-term US bills. However, we first detected a change in tone on Tuesday, and others did on Wednesday. The collective sigh of relief lifted the S&P 500 by nearly 2.2% on Thursday, the second largest advancing session of the year. The Dollar-Index rose to 2-week highs. The dollar rose to 2-3 week highs against the sterling and yen and the highest in a month against the Canadian dollar.

Nearly no one really expected the US to default, but the risk of ruin had to be avoided. Volume for credit default swap protection from a US default has increased, according to some industry estimates, cited in the Financial Times, to 150 mln euros from 1.6 mln previously. Short-dated bills used for collateral or margin were replaced by some institutional investors with cash.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: NEW GOLD INC.(NGD)

New Gold Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. The company primarily explore for gold, silver, and copper deposits. Its operating properties include the Mesquite gold mine in the United States; the Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in Mexico; and the Peak gold-copper mine in Australia. The company also has development projects, including the New Afton gold, silver, and copper project in Canada; and a 30% interest in the El Morro copper-gold project in Chile. The company was formerly known as DRC Resources Corporation and changed its name to New Gold Inc. in June 2005. New Gold Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    One group of stocks not feeling the optimism today: Gold miners. With fewer concerns that a U.S. attack on Syria will be disruptive and more evidence that tapering will begin this month, the price of the precious metal has dropped 1.6% to $1,388.90 an ounce–and gold stocks are falling with it. New Gold (NGD), for one, has dropped 3% to $6.55, while Barrick Gold (ABX) has fallen 1.3% to $19.25.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Bridges favorite stocks include Goldcorp, Newmont, Eldorado Gold (EGO) and New Gold (NGD).

    Note, however, that these recommendations are all qualified in one way or another. Investors should keep that in mind before going all in on the gold miners.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Even bad news has failed to dent the rise in gold stocks today. NewGold (NGD), for instance, has gained 1.8% to $7.49 despite the fact that the wall of one of its mines collapsed. The Wall Street Journal has the details:

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: Transcananda Pipelines Ltd.(TRP)

Transcanada Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. The company operates in three segments: Natural Gas Pipelines, Oil Pipelines, and Energy. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment develops and operates energy infrastructure, including natural gas pipelines and regulated gas storage facilities. Its network of natural gas pipelines extends approximately 60,000 km tapping into gas supply basins in North America. The Oil Pipelines segment operates Keystone crude oil pipeline system, which includes completed 3,467 km Wood River/Patoka and Cushing Extension phases, and the proposed 2,673 km U.S. Gulf Coast Expansion. The Energy segment engages in the acquisition, development, construction, ownership, and operation of electrical power generation plants; the purchase and marketing of electricity; the provision of electricity account services to energy and industrial customers; and the development, construction, ownership, and operation of non-regulat ed natural gas storage in Alberta. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    While environmentalists and climate-change groups are sure to be dismayed by the study's results, the committee's findings are good news for TransCanada (NYSE: TRP  ) , which is seeking U.S. federal approval to construct the northern portion of its Keystone XL pipeline.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    These issues are especially pertinent for TransCanada's (NYSE: TRP  ) proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would link production from Alberta's oil sands to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. With that in mind, let's take a closer look at how leak detection systems work and how effective they are.

10 Best China Stocks To Watch For 2014: ENI S.p.A. (E)

Eni SpA, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration, production, transportation, transformation, and marketing of oil and natural gas. The company also involves in the production and sale of electricity; refining and marketing of petroleum products; and production and sale of petrochemical products and hydrocarbons. In addition, it engages in the offshore and onshore hydrocarbon field construction. Further, the company offers offshore and onshore drilling, and offshore design and engineering services for oil and gas companies. It has a strategic partnership with Gazprom for the joint development of projects in the upstream oil and gas markets. Eni SpA operates in Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania, and the Americas. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy with an additional office in San Donato Milanese, Italy.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Alex Planes]

    Noble and Delek control the current find, but there are several other promising blocks leased to France's Total (NYSE: TOT  ) and Italy's Eni (NYSE: E  ) , both of which could also participate in developing the export terminal. This would be a more lucrative proposition for Cyprus than it might be in the U.S., because present nat-gas prices in the EU are more than four times as high as they are in the United States:

  • [By Sara Murphy]

    A recent report from sustainable business advocate Ceres found wide discrepancies in disclosure quality among oil and gas majors. Ceres found that BP (NYSE: BP  ) , Suncor (NYSE: SU  ) , and Eni (NYSE: E  ) provided the best disclosure overall, while ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) and Apache (NYSE: APA  ) did the worst.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: (AUQ)

AuRico Gold Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold and silver projects and properties in Canada, Mexico, and Australia. Its principal property includes the Ocampo mine covering approximately 15,000 hectares located in Chihuahua State. The company was formerly known as Gammon Gold Inc. and changed its name to AuRico Gold Inc. in June 2011. AuRico Gold Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Gold miner�AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ  ) announced today�its second-quarter dividend of $0.04 per share, the second dividend payment it's made since initiating the program earlier this year.�The board of directors said the quarterly dividend is payable on July 29 to the holders of record at the close of business on July 15.�

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Endeavour has also suffered company-specific issues. In January, the company lowered its production guidance for its key El Cubo mine. As Motley Fool contributor Christopher Barker noted at the time, former mine owner AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ  ) did a poor job of managing and operating El Cubo, leaving Endeavour with a massive opportunity to refurbish and expand the mine. Yet at least in the short run, the company still faces a big challenge there, especially in light of a recent fatality of a contractor employee at the mine last month.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    Then there's the company's El Cubo mine, which it purchased in 2012 from AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ  ) with a combination of its own shares and cash for up to $250 million ($50 million is contingent on mine productivity over a three-year period). As fellow Fool Christopher Barker has commented previously, AuRico did a disastrous job of managing the El Cubo mine, which leaves Endeavour with a tremendous opportunity to reap the rewards of AuRico's failures.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: PerkinElmer Inc.(PKI)

PerkinElmer, Inc. provides technology, services, and solutions to the diagnostics, research, environmental, industrial, and laboratory services markets worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Human Health and Environmental Health. The Human Health segment develops diagnostics, tools, and applications to help detect diseases earlier, as well as accelerate the discovery and development of critical new therapies. This segment provides early detection for genetic disorders from pre-conception to early childhood, as well as digital x-ray flat panel detectors and infectious disease testing for the diagnostics market. It also provides a suite of solutions, including instrumentation for automation and detection solutions, in vitro and in vivo imaging and analysis hardware and software, and a portfolio of consumable products, such as drug discovery and research reagents that enable researchers to enhance the drug discovery process. The Environmental Health segment offers t echnologies and applications to facilitate the creation of safer food and consumer products, secure surroundings, and efficient energy resources. This segment provides analytical technologies that address the quality of environment, sustainable energy development, and ensure safer food and consumer products; analytical instrumentation for the industrial market, which includes the semiconductor, chemical, petrochemical, lubricant, construction, office equipment, and quality assurance industries; and laboratory services. The company markets its products and services directly through its own sales forces and distributors for customers, including pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, laboratories, academic and research institutions, public health authorities, private healthcare organizations, doctors, and government agencies. PerkinElmer, Inc. was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By David Goodboy]

    In other bullish news, TrovaGene entered into a material agreement with multibillion-dollar diagnostics technology leader PerkinElmer (NYSE: PKI) to jointly develop a test to determine a person's risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The terms have not been disclosed, but PerkinElmer will make milestone payments to TrovaGene. 

  • [By Rich Smith]

    The Department of Defense awarded a dozen separate contracts Thursday, worth more than $225 million in aggregate. Notable winners (among publicly traded companies) included:

  • [By Daniel Lauchheimer]

    Let us contrast this with TROV's progress. TROV has secured two critical partnerships -- with Illumina (ILMN), and PerkinElmer (PKI). Company filings on the ILMN deal don't provide much detail, but the filings with the PKI deal detail how PKI wants to use TROV's science to develop a new t assay to detect the presence of hepatocelluar carcinoma (HCC). While these two partnerships do not guarantee approval in any way, they do provide a solid validation for TROV's technology.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: (CG)

The Carlyle Group is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led buyouts, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings. The firm typically invests in agriculture, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, technology, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, and media sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. W ithin aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies , managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, Middle East, North America, and South America. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate! sector, the firm seeks to invest in Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States with a target on Florida and Atlanta. It typically invests between $5 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $1 billion for buyouts. It typically holds its investments for three to five years. Within automotive and transportation sectors, the firm seeks to hold its investments in for four to six years. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices across North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Inyoung Hwang]

    Credit Suisse (CSGN)�� Chen took a new look at publicly listed private-equity firms, including Apollo Global Management LLC, Blackstone Group LP (BX) and Carlyle Group LP. (CG) Investors are still struggling to properly value them, he says.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    This isn't to say, even with the economy on the mend, that the asset management sector hasn't struggled mightily. In order to attract new money, KKR (NYSE: KKR  ) �and Blackstone -- both companies known to attract the upper echelon of wage-earners, have lowered their minimum buy-in requirements for their hedge funds down to just $2,500. Even Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG  ) , which had previously restricted access to the top 1% of all income earners, is lowering its minimum investing requirements a bit to attract new investors as my Foolish colleague Amanda Alix reported in March.�

  • [By David Smith]

    Jettisoning the non-performers
    Net debt was actually lowered by $4.2 billion during the second quarter through the application of funds received earlier from the sale of the performance coatings group to The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG  ) . The private equity firm forked over $4.9 million for the segment, which has subsequently been renamed Axalta Coating Systems.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: Prestige Brand Holdings Inc.(PBH)

Prestige Brands Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in marketing, selling, and distributing over-the-counter healthcare and household cleaning products primarily in North America. The company?s Over-The-Counter Healthcare segment offers a portfolio of OTC products under nine core OTC brands, including Chloraseptic sore throat remedies, Clear Eyes eye drops, Compound W wart removers, Dramamine motion sickness products, Efferdent and Effergrip denture products, Little Remedies pediatric healthcare products, Luden's cough drops, PediaCare pediatric healthcare products, and The Doctor?s brand of oral care products. This segment also provides other significant brands that include Dermoplast first-aid products, Murine eye and ear care products, NasalCrom allergy relief product, New-Skin liquid bandage, and Wartner wart removers. Its Household Cleaning segment markets household cleaning products, such as abrasive and non-abrasive tub and tile cleaner, scrubb ing pads and sponges, dilutables, anti-bacterial hard surface spray for counter tops, and glass cleaners under the Comet, Chore Boy, and Spic and Span brands. Prestige Brands Holdings distributes its products through various retail channels, including drug, food, dollar, and club stores, as well as supermarkets and mass merchandisers. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvington, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Castor believes the cash has disappeared into working capital, which has grown from 23% to more than 50% since 2008. Comparable company Prestige�Brand (PBH) uses 11%; Unilever�(UL) and Colgate-Palmolive�(CL) far less.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    What: Shares of Prestige Brands (NYSE: PBH  ) , a marketer of over-the-counter health care and household cleaning products, jumped as much as 14% after it announced the acquisition of Australia's Care Pharmaceuticals.

  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Prestige Brands (NYSE: PBH  ) is reaching to the other side of the world for its latest acquisition. The company announced that it has purchased the privately held Care Pharmaceuticals, based in New South Wales, Australia. The terms of the deal were not disclosed, although Prestige Brands did admit that it would be funded by monies drawn from an existing credit facility combined with cash on hand.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: TotalFinaElf S.A.(TOT)

TOTAL S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated oil and gas company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. It also involves in the transportation, trade, and marketing of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as in LNG re-gasification and natural gas storage operations. In addition, this segment engages in the shipping and trade of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG); power generation from gas-fired power plants, nuclear, or renewable energies; production, trade, and marketing of coal, as well as in solar power systems and technology operations. As of December 31, 2010, it had combined proved reserves of 10,695 Mboe of oil and gas. The Downstream segment involves in refining, marketing, trading, and shipping crude oil and petroleum products. It also produces a range of specialty products, s uch as lubricants, LPG, jet fuel, special fluids, bitumen, marine fuels, and petrochemical feedstock. This segment holds interests in 24 refineries located in Europe, the United States, the French West Indies, Africa, and China, as well as operates a network of 17,490 service stations. The Chemicals segment produces base chemicals, including petrochemicals and fertilizers, as well as engages in rubber processing, resins, adhesives, and electroplating activities. TOTAL S.A. was founded in 1924 and is based in Paris, France.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Maxx Chatsko]

    When Solazyme talks about product development with partners such as Mitsui, it takes care of the steps outlined above, while Mitsui helps define product specifications that are desired by customers. The same goes for Amyris and Total (NYSE: TOT  ) and Gevo and Toray as well as other commercialization partners for the companies. Additionally, Solazyme gets fermentation help from partner Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM  ) , an important mentor for the developing company. The company is one of the leading ethanol producers in the country, so it has a wealth of knowledge in coaxing microbes into fermentation machines.�

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Given current oil prices, that means several projects are barely profitable, leading some oil sands operators to reconsider new ventures. For instance, Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU  ) , one of the largest oil sands producers by output, has been mulling over the profitability of three mining-related ventures jointly proposed with French oil major Total (NYSE: TOT  ) .

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Much of the reason for Statoil's weakness over the past year comes from a simple fact of geography. Investors have been extremely nervous about instability in the eurozone, and even though oil giants including France's Total (NYSE: TOT  ) , Italy's Eni (NYSE: E  ) , and Norway's Statoil all own energy properties located around the world, their shares have nevertheless traded as though they were overly exposed to their home markets. Moreover, Norway is among the most stable of Europe's national economies, making the cheap valuations even more ridiculous.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc(VRX)

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceutical products in the areas of neurology, dermatology, and branded generics. It offers Wellbutrin XL to treat depressive disorders; Xenazine to treat chorea associated with Huntington?s disease; CeraVe to rebuild and repair skin barrier; and Kinerase, a cosmetic product. The company also provides Zovirax ointment to treat initial genital herpes; Xerese to treat recurrent herpes labialis; Elidel to treat atopic dermatitis; and Acanya and Atralin gels to treat acne vulgaris. In addition, it offers Cesamet to treat nausea and vomiting associated with cancer chemotherapy; Tiazac XC to treat hypertension and angina; Wellbutrin to treat depressive illness; Sublinox to treat insomnia; and Lodalis to treat hypercholesterolemia. Further, the company provides Cold-FX to strengthen immune system; Duromine/Metermine for weight loss; Difflam to treat sore throa ts; and Duro-Tuss and Rikodeine to treat dry and chesty cough, as well as various branded generics for treatments, including antibiotics, treatments for cardiovascular and neurological diseases, antifungal medications, and diabetic therapies. Additionally, it offers Bisocard to treat hypertension and angina pectoris; Flucinar, a corticosteroid ointment; and Sachol mouth ulcer gel; Bedoyecta to treat neurotic pain; M.V.I., a hospital dietary supplement for trauma and burns; Tandene to treat fever and headache; Melleril to treat anxiety and depression; and products for therapeutic classes, such as vitamin deficiency, antibacterials, and dermatology. It markets its products in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, southeast Asia, and South Africa. The company was formerly known as Biovail Corporation and changed its name to Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. in September 2010. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in M ississauga, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sean Williams]

    What: Shares of specialty pharmaceutical company Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX  ) spiked higher by as much as 17% following a report from The Wall Street Journal that indicates that Valeant may be close to purchasing privately held eye care products maker Bausch & Lomb.

  • [By Eric Lam]

    Canadian stocks rose, erasing earlier losses of as much as 0.3 percent to clinch a fifth week of gains, as a surge in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (VRX) offset a slump in oil and gold producers.

Top 10 Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: Talisman Energy Inc.(TLM)

Talisman Energy Inc., an upstream oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It primarily operates in North America, the North Sea, and southeast Asia. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Companies backing out of Poland
    In addition to the above-ground risks of regulatory, licensing, and taxation uncertainty, disappointing initial results from shale test wells have led some companies to rethink doing business in the country. Last month, Poland's shale prospects were further dashed when Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM  ) and Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO  ) decided to pull out from their operations in the country.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Can CVS Caremark Continue This Bullish Run?

With shares of CVS Caremark (NYSE:CVS) trading around $66, is CVS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

CVS Caremark is a pharmacy and healthcare provider in the United States. The company operates in three business segments: Pharmacy Services, Retail Pharmacy, and Corporate. The products and services offered at CVS Caremark stores may be deemed as essential by many consumers in the United States. As CVS Caremark provides an efficient and affordable healthcare and pharmacy experience, look for it to see rising profits.

CVS Caremark has named long-serving executive Helena Foulkes to replace Mark Cosby as president of the company’s pharmacy business, effective January 1. The Woonsocket, R.I., company said Cosby will resign on December 31. A short statement from the company on Monday gave no reason for his departure.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

CVS Caremark stock has been displaying a strong trend in recent times. The stock is now trading near all time high prices and looks set to continue this path. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, CVS Caremark is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

CVS

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of CVS Caremark options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

CVS Caremark Options

18.41%

30%

28%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on CVS Caremark’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for CVS Caremark look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

30.38%

19.75%

30.51%

12.05%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

5.76%

1.74%

-0.11%

10.87%

Earnings Reaction

2.00%

-2.80%

-0.92%

0.53%

CVS Caremark has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with CVS Caremark’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has CVS Caremark stock done relative to its peers, Walgreen (NYSE:WAG), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX), and sector?

CVS Caremark

Walgreen

Rite Aid

Express Scripts

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

37.95%

62.04%

328.30%

25.22%

42.73%

CVS Caremark has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

CVS Caremark provides healthcare and general products and services to consumers across the nation. The company named long-serving executive Helena Foulkes to replace Mark Cosby as president of the company’s pharmacy business. The stock has been rising higher and is now trading near all time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been increasing leaving investors pleased about CVS Caremark's earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, CVS Caremark has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for CVS Caremark to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

New Microsoft tablets reach beyond Surface appeal

NEW YORK -- Microsoft took a colossal $900 million inventory adjustment on Surface RT in July that left people questioning the very future of Microsoft-branded tablets.

Surface RT was the first personal computer that Microsoft produced itself and it ran the flavor of Windows designed mainly for the tablet user. Its pricier Surface Pro sibling ran a full version of Windows 8, and unlike RT, was compatible with older "legacy" Windows PC software making it more of the true laptop replacement Microsoft positions it to be.

Either way, Microsoft didn't exactly have a hit on its hands.

Microsoft isn't surrendering to the iPad (which is expected to be refreshed Tuesday) or for that matter the company's various hardware partners-turned-rivals that also have a stake in Windows 8. Nokia, which is soon to be under Microsoft, is also expected to unveil a new tablet this week.

I've had a chance to check out the two new machines Microsoft hopes will turn around its tablet business, ahead of their Tuesday launch. There's Surface 2 that runs Windows RT 8.1 and ranges from $449 to $549, and Surface Pro 2 that runs Windows 8.1 Pro and fetches between $899 and $1,799.

Make no mistake, Microsoft has made more than surface improvements to its tablets, and the move to Windows 8.1 software, which addresses prior shortcomings, is also significant. But challenges remain. As a tablet neither Surface can outduel the iPad. And I'm not fully sold on the Pro model as the ideal full-time laptop substitute.

I say that liking a lot of what Microsoft has done here. The latest hardware sports amped up processing power, longer battery life, improved cameras, and in the case of Surface 2 a step up in screen quality to a 10.6-inch Full HD 1080p multi-touch display. (Surface Pro was already delivering Full HD in a 10.6-inch screen.).

Surface 2 also gets a single USB 3.0 port — it was a 2.0 port last time. Both slates have memory card readers.

At 1.5 pounds, Surface 2 is a shade thinner and ligh! ter than its predecessor. The biggest cosmetic change is Surface 2 now comes in an Apple-like magnesium silver color compared to the dark titanium hue of the original.

Meantime, the 2-pound Pro 2, pretty heavy and bulky for a tablet, weighs the same and is practically a dead ringer for the first Pro.

Changes from the original Surface

The original Surface models were noted for a kickstand attached to the back that propped it up on a tabletop as you took in a video. But some folks complained it was hard to use on your lap, so Microsoft added a second kickstand position that simplifies usability on your lap.

In its first iteration, Surface RT included Word, PowerPoint, Excel and OneNote from the Microsoft Office suite. But Outlook was missing in action. That unfortunate oversight has been remedied with Surface 2. (You'll have to pay to use Office on the Pro model.)

Last time around, Microsoft did a lot right with clever keyboard covers that bring real Qwerty typing to these contraptions — these really were must-have accessories if you wanted to get productive work done. Microsoft has improved those optional accessories. So now, we have a back-lit thinner and lighter Touch Cover 2 (about $120) that Microsoft claims you can type up to two times faster than using an onscreen keyboard.

I actually prefer using the Type Cover 2 (about $130) because it provides some of the "travel" on the keys that I'm accustomed to on a regular laptop, though it still won't make you forget, say, a good ThinkPad keyboard. Type Cover 2 is backlit and available in different colors, with a touchpad you can use for gestures. As before, you hear a distinctive click sound when you magnetically snap these accessories onto the tablet.

Early next year, Microsoft is planning to bring out a $200 keyboard cover with a built in battery that it says will bolster battery life on the tablet up to 50%.

The battery life on the latest slates is improved but nothing to write home about. In my very ha! rsh test ! in which I crank the brightness all the way up and stream video over Wi-Fi, Surface 2 approached seven hours of juice, while Pro exceeded five hours. That's better than the six hours and three-and-a-half hours of battery life I got with their predecessors on similar tests.

Surface 2 costs $449 for 32GB, $549 for 64GB. Surface Pro 2, which comes with a digitizer pen, costs $899, $999, $1,299 or $1,799, for 64GB, 128GB, 256GB and 512GB, respectively.

Buy either tablet, and Microsoft has throws in a nice bonus: a year of free Skype calling to landlines in more than 60 countries, unlimited Skype Wi-Fi, 200GB of free storage on Microsoft's SkyDrive online locker for two years.

I mostly appreciate what Microsoft has done with the hardware but I'm not betting on a major surge in sales either. Consider the drawbacks: the Pro device is pricey (especially when you lop on the cost of the keyboard covers.) Surface 2 still doesn't run your older software.

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And then there's Windows 8 (now 8.1) itself. I happen to like the operating system more than some, but understand the confusion its bipolar characteristics brings to the table. Microsoft has been trying to have it all, an operating system that appeals equally well to tablet users who have come to rely on multi-touch screens, but also those who prefer a more traditional mouse/keyboard /PC approach.

So you have a Windows that in its touch environment is built around a fresh live-tile based interface yet one that doesn't totally abandon a desktop view more reminiscent of of Windows from yesteryear.

Microsoft took some heat for doing away with the Start button and menu inherent in the old Windows, and with Windows 8.1, the Start button has been restored. But it's only a half-step back. Tapping Start in the desktop environment only brings you back to the tile interface.

You do have the option to boot up into ei! ther envi! ronment, and the 8.1-update introduces more polish and customization overall. Bing Search is neatly integrated, I like how you can display (and resize) windows side by side, and even the app count is slowly but surely rising. It is up to 110,000 now, still far behind rivals.

By now the folks who jumped on the Windows 8 bus should be accustomed to the way things are done. But it seems just as many PC devotees stuck with Windows 7, because of how radically different Windows 8 proved to be.

If you are willing to consider Microsoft's latest tablets, you have some decisions to make: Go with an RT device that is far less expensive but that can't run older software. Or splurge on the pricier Pro model that can (keeping in mind you may have to connect an optical drive) handle older software but doesn't deliver as long a battery. And if you're going to go the latter route, then you're not only comparing Surface Pro to other tablets, but to a wide range of excellent laptops, a comparison Surface Pro is not always going to win.

Email: ebaig@usatoday.com. Follow @edbaig on Twitter.

The bottom line

Surface Pro 2

www.surface.com

$899 and up

Pro Runs legacy Windows software. Zippy. Impressive hardware. Keyboard covers. 200GB of SkyDrive storage for two years, plus year of Skype calling. Kickstand improved.

Con Expensive. So-so battery life. Keyboard covers cost extra.

Surface RT

$449 and up

Pro Microsoft Outlook added to included Office suite. 200GB of SkyDrive storage for two years, plus year of Skype calling. Kickstand improved.

Con Doesn't run older PC software. Keyboard covers cost extra.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Pending Home Sales Drop 0.6% in October, Hurt by Government Shutdown

NEW YORK (THESTREET) -- Contracts signed to purchase previously-owned homes slipped for the fifth straight month in October, as the government shutdown pushed buyers to the sidelines.

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index declined 0.6% to 102.1 from an upwardly revised reading of 102.7 in September. Year-over-year, the index is down 1.6% and is at its lowest level since December 2012.

Contract activity was mixed, with the index declining as much as 4.1% in the West. Pending home sales declined 0.8% in the South, while there were modest gains in the Northeast and Midwest.

Extremely tight inventory in the high-cost West region was holding back activity, according to NAR. Pending Home Sales , which reflects signed contracts as opposed to closings, is considered a useful predictor of existing home sales. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said part of the decline in activity could be attributed to the government shutdown. In a survey, 17% of realtors reported delays in October, mostly from waiting for IRS income verification for mortgage approvals. Higher home prices, limited inventory of homes and higher interest rates added to already tight credit conditions have weighed on buyer demand in the last several months. Yun expects conditions to ease if job creation continues and mortgage underwriting standards ease once there is greater clarity over new mortgage lending rules that take effect in 2014.

-- Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

This Tobacco Company May Boost Investors’ Portfolios

Philip Morris International (PM) is reaching new heights in 2013. With its products being sold in 180 countries it is the proud owner of about 15 cigarette brands- Marlboro, Merit, Parliament, Virginia Slims, L&M, and Chesterfield being some of them. FY2013 looks bright for this tobacco giant. Reasons Why 2013 Is Looking Bright

The stock is currently trading at $88 with a current yield of 4.2%. This U.S. -based company is valued at $145.8 billion, and is the largest manufacturer and distributor of cigarettes in the world. The quarterly dividend has grown from $0.54 to $0.94 over the past five years, for a 5-year compound annual growth rate [CAGR] of 11.72%. It has a current payout ratio of 66%. The stock yields 4.21%, and the 2014 forward P/E multiple is 14.99. It has a good combination of strong free cash flow generation, and manageable financial leverage . The firm's free cash flow margin is expected at about 13.3% in coming years . Total debt-to-EBITDA was 1.5 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 118%. Over the past five years, profits across the company have increased from $6.3 billion in 2009 to an estimated $9.5 billion by the end of this year. It paid $2.24 in dividends in 2009, and now they are paying out $3.76 per share. The Board has given shareholders a raise every year .

Competition faced

Philip Morris faces stiff competition from Lorillard Inc. (LO). Its flagship brands include Newport, Kent, True, Maverick, Old Gold, Blu electronic cigarettes (e- cigs ), and the recently -acquired British e- cig brand SKYCIG. On October 23, Lorillard reported third quarter EPS of $0.83. Original menthol Newport cigarettes account for 88% of Lorillard's revenue. This is a major concern for Lorillard because regulators are now reviewing evidence to determine whether mentholated cigarettes expose smokers to increased health risks compared to non-menthol cigarettes.

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Reynolds American (RAI) is another good player in the tobacco industry. The company raised $2.55 billion in debt in late October to pay off existing debts and repurchase shares. This certainly doesn't go in favor of the company. RAI has a high PEG of 2, which reflects that the company offers expensive growth in comparison to its peers.

Entry into E-Cigarette Market

Philip Morris is planning to enter into the e-cigarette market in the second half of 2014. According to Philip Morris International CEO André Calantzopoulos , Philip Morris would attempt to absolve some of the current issues with the development of its own e-cigarette technology. The company noted that there is strong consumer demand for a less-harmful cigarette alternative , and that through positive results in its own consumer tests as well as broader consumer interest, Philip Morris would begin the development of its own e-cigarette. However, the company did note that current e-cigarettes often have a slower delivery of nicotine when compared to conventional cigarettes , and often have weaker tastes, which result in "limited user satisfaction and reduced adoption rates."

Acquisition Plans

Philip Morris is planning to acquire a 49% stake in United Arab Emirates-based Arab Investors-TA (FZC), which will give it a bigger stake in the Algerian market. Through the acquisition, Philip Morris will own 25% of the STAEM joint venture in Algeria, with which it has had a partnership with since 2005. It is expected that the investment will give a boost to Philip Morris' earning potential in Algeria, and noted this will be reflected in earnings per share results beginning in 2014. In May of this year, Philip Morris also acquired the final 20% interest in its Mexican subsidiary for $700 million.

Concluding On a Positive Note

Philip Morris boasts of a solid international presence with a share of about 15% of the international cigarette market (excluding U.S.). The company e! ngages in! sustainability programs to manage environmental performance, reduce the PM long-term carbon footprint and encourage good agricultural practices.

It is the best positioned among its peers to benefit from consumers trading up to premium brands as disposable income rises, and an opportunity to bring the proportion of premium volume up to levels similar to what it has in developed markets can be seen . Considering the company's pricing power and exposure to growing emerging markets , Philip Morris has a bright prospect. Therefore, for investors in search of opportunities with current and future growth potential, Philip Morris International provides a great investment.

Currently 4.33/512345

Rating: 4.3/5 (3 votes)

Share & Vote .social_network_button{ +float: left; } Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments mharter99Mharter99 - 7 hours ago This person does not know what they are talking about. Philip Morris and Lorillard are not competitors. Lorillard sales are in the U.S. and Philip Morris' are international. Really surprised this was allowed to be posted. Please leave your comment:
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Saturday, November 23, 2013

There’s a long way to go before Fed raises rates

The Federal Reserve may not be happy until it gets unemployment all the way down to 5.5%, if statements from central bank officials and other economists are an indication.

Up until recently, the U.S. central bank appeared steadfast on a benchmark of 6.5% before it began normalizing its target for short-term interest rates from the near-zero current level. The zero-bound has been in place since the darkest days of the financial crisis that exploded in 2008.

That commitment to concrete targets for policy change has changed recently, however.

The unemployment rate has been on a steady downward trajectory, though the October reading showed a slight uptick to 7.3%. But it has been doing so in great part due to the shrinking labor force.

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At the same time, inflation has remained muted despite the Fed pumping $85 billion a month in liquidity under its quantitative easing bond-buying program.

So with actual job creation still fairly muted and inflation—at least as gauged through conventional government measures—well below the Fed's 2.5% warning sign, interest rates probably aren't going anywhere for years.

Bernanke said as much Tuesday in remarks at the National Economists Club annual dinner in Washington.

He warned against using the headline unemployment measure as a gauge because "many other indicators become relevant to a comprehensive judgment of the health of the labor market, including such measures as payroll employment, labor force participation, and the rates of hiring and separation.

"In particular, even after unemployment drops below 6.5%, and so long as inflation remains well behaved," he continued, "the (Fed Open Markets) Committee can be patient in seeking assurance that the labor market is sufficiently strong before considering any increase in its target for the federal funds rate."

Economists at Goldman S! achs have been monitoring the internal Fed analyses over what would constitute a safe unemployment rate, and said in a paper published Tuesday that the threshold is probably 5.5%. That analysis is influenced by two recent papers from Fed economists that concluded waiting for a lower rate would have greater economic benefits.

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The Goldman analysis, from Sven Jari Stehn, said the Fed faces the challenge of not merely stabilizing the unemployment rate but also addressing the plummeting labor-force participation rate, which is at a 35-year low.

"Although our analysis is subject to significant uncertainty, our results suggest that taking into account adverse supply side effects--by aiming to normalize both the unemployment and participation rates--strengthens the case for lowering the 6.5% unemployment threshold," Stehn said. "Our small model suggests that the most desirable unemployment threshold in this case would be around 5.5%."

But the Fed risks its credibility by adjusting its targets.

Markets have been reacting to virtually every word that comes out of the Open Markets Committee. Investors want to know when the Fed will reduce the pace of its asset purchases, and when it plans on raising rates.

Though Bernanke is trying to dissuade markets from attaching too much importance to the unemployment and inflation thresholds, minutes released Wednesday from the October Fed meeting showed only grudging support for lowering the 6.5% guideline.

That could indicate a fight brewing internally that investors may not like.

Follow Cox on Twitter: @JeffCoxCNBCcom.

© CNBC is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Shutdown leads retirement plan regulator to hit pause

Thanks to the shutdown of the federal government, the Labor Department's Employee Benefits Security Administration likely will have to hit the “pause” button on certain investigations and enforcement actions.

Generally, federal employees are unable to work if there is no funding available, but some exception can be given to staffers who are deemed absolutely essential.

“The vast majority of government employees can't work, so most routine functions for EBSA are on hiatus until the shutdown is resolved,” said Bradford Campbell, an attorney with Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP and a former assistant secretary of the EBSA, which oversees retirement plans and enforces the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974

“For cases that were in the midst of litigation over the past week, the Labor Department has been filing with the courts to ask for extensions,” Mr. Campbell added. “They've been preparing for some of this, but at the same time, they have the authority to take action in extraordinary situations.”

Not all investigators are deemed essential workers. Those who aren't will likely stop working on their cases until the funding issue is resolved.

“If [investigators] are dealing with a timeline, say a statute of limitations, then they are addressing it,” said Steve Barr, a spokesman with the Labor Department. “If there is a criminal investigation before a grand jury, then they're trying to be responsive. If there is a bankruptcy filing coming in, they look at it to make sure there is nothing that warrants their attention.”

Mr. Barr added: “They are doing some investigative work, but not all of it: it needs to be a pressing matter.”

The EBSA last month proposed having 85 of its field and national office staff members declared “excepted” or “intermittently excepted” from the furloughs.

“This limited number of staff is needed in order to continue to perform excepted and 'by necessary implication' activities arising from the Secretary's criminal authority under ERISA,” wrote Alan D. Lebowitz, deputy assistant secretary for program operations, in a Sept. 12 memo to Labor solicitor Patricia Smith.

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Those workers also could respond to emergencies and handle “imminent threats to human life when medical benefits are denied in life-threatening situations,” Mr. Lebowitz wrote in his memo.

Of the 85 employees who were proposed to be exempted from the furlough, 46 were needed to handle criminal cases involving ERISA plans, pursue civil proceedings and address life-threatenin! g scenarios due to the denial of health or disability benefits by an ERISA plan. The remaining 39 employees are on an “intermittent exceptions” list to perform specific activities, such as ensuring the agency's technology services continue running or participating in an criminal case.

In the end, some 46 EBSA workers out of 986 onboard are expected to remain during the shutdown, per the memo.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

3 Big Dividend Payers With Rising Share Prices

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Finding top dividend stocks trending higher in price is the standard you should set for investing. This is especially true when the Federal Reserve is buying $85 billion in paper a month and effectively removing savings accounts from viable investing options.

While you may think it's not easy to find high-yielding stocks also soaring in price, I have a list of three for you.

I have a few rules that any given company's stock must pass before I allow it on the list. To make the cut of separating the zeros from the heroes, they must meet, at a minimum, the following criteria: A stock must be highly liquid and trade with a small bid-ask spread to avoid slippage. The company must have a history of dividend payments and increases in payments. The company needs to demonstrate the ability to continue paying the current dividend or more. The stock chart must be in a bullish uptrend; there is no point in looking for an oversized yield if the shares are expected to drop as much or more in the next year.

How can you take advantage of the following list of dividend stocks? Make sure the industry and the company matches your investment objectives. Use your current professional knowledge as applicable to garner a market edge when entering or exiting a position. Remember, your greatest edge is your ability to limit investments to industries you already understand. MSFT Dividend Yield (TTM) ChartMSFT Dividend Yield (TTM) data by YCharts Microsoft (MSFT) Price To Book: 3.5 Earnings Payout Percentage: 34% Background:Microsoft develops, licenses and supports a range of software products and services for various computing devices worldwide. The company also provides cloud computer services and is growing their wireless phone services after buying Nokia's (NOK) phone division. Microsoft trades an average of 53 million shares per day with a market cap of $271 billion. Ok, for many Microsoft reminds people of a stock their grandparents would buy, but who doesn't like a chart moving from the bottom left to the upper right? Another tech stock I like and wrote extensively about is Yahoo! (YHOO). Between Yahoo! and Microsoft, it's close to a toss-up with a slight edge to Yahoo!. But Yahoo! doesn't pay a dividend, so it's not on the list. While Yahoo! has an enormous stake in Alibaba and a fantastic CEO from Wisconsin, Microsoft has a much better history of executing well. Apple (AAPL) competes with Microsoft in the tablet, phone and OS space and is one of my favorite stocks. On Wednesday, I wrote Carl Icahn Is Smarter Than You describing why Apple remains a strong investment even after bouncing over $90 off its lows. Apple can easily make this list, but since I already give it full coverage I'll just mention it here in the context of Microsoft. Another often overlooked competitor is Oracle (ORCL). Oracle's database software competes with Microsoft's SQL and pays a dividend, but not enough to make my list. Steve Ballmer may not be the most popular CEO. However, not only has Microsoft grown under his leadership, but Microsoft didn't disappoint or reduce when other companies were busy cutting or eliminating their dividends in 2009 and 2010. This stock currently has an annualized dividend of $1.12, yielding 3.5%. The latest dividend increase announcement solidifies my confidence in Microsoft that much more. After retracing a spike higher from the dividend announcement, Microsoft has a strong base of support in the $31.50 area and appears ready to trek up for another test of the $36 resistance level. MSFT Payout Ratio TTM ChartMSFT Payout Ratio TTM data by YCharts

F Dividend Yield (TTM) ChartF Dividend Yield (TTM) data by YCharts

Ford (F)

Price To Book: 3.5

Earnings Payout Percentage: 20% Background: Ford Motor produces cars and trucks. The company and its subsidiaries also engage in other businesses including Ford Motor Credit Company. Ford trades an average of 37 million shares per day with a market cap of $68 billion. Here's a fact you may not know, based on market cap: Ford is bigger, or at least more valuable than General Motors (GM). GM has a valuation of $51 billion. I've always viewed GM as the larger company, and I'm correct based on revenue. GM outsells Ford by about $10 billion a year, but even that difference is narrowing. What's even more startling is Tesla Motors (TSLA) with a valuation of $22 billion. To put the numbers in perspective, currently Ford sells more Focuses in about a week than total Tesla sales for a year. Adding insult to injury, unlike Telsa, Ford is profitable. Either Ford is heavily undervalued or Tesla is overvalued. I'm thinking both. The bigger concern for now is Toyota Motors (TM) as they go toe-to-toe fighting for bragging rights for the number one-selling car in the world. The previously mentioned Ford Focus was named the number one-selling car in 2012, but Toyota disputes the methodology in the count. There's no debate the stock is rewarding investors. About a year ago I wrote several articles describing Ford as a bargain in the $10 area. So far so good, but Ford has massive upside, in my opinion. It may not feel comfortable buying a stock near its 52-week high but revenue and earnings growth justify a price far north of $20 a share. The best part is that while waiting for $20 or more investors receive 40 cents a year in dividends for a yield of 2.3%. Admittedly, 2.3% is on the low side to make the list, but Ford is such a compelling stock right now that it makes the cut. F Payout Ratio TTM ChartF Payout Ratio TTM data by YCharts

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GLW Dividend Yield (TTM) ChartGLW Dividend Yield (TTM) data by YCharts

Corning (GLW)

Price To Book: 1

Earnings Payout Percentage: 27% Background: Corning manufactures optical fiber, cable and photonic products for the telecommunications industry and high-performance displays and components for television and other communications-related industries. Corning trades an average of 10 million shares per day with a market cap of $21 billion. Corning is the clear leader in its space, with the next largest competitor having revenue less than 30% of Corning's. Corning is essentially a stock you can buy, throw in the back of the drawer and forget about it, only to get reminded you own it four times a year when the dividend check arrives. The dividend is an attractive 2.7%. Unless you think display screens are going the way of the horseless carriage, Corning should have a strong future -- a future that likely belongs in your portfolio. The stock appreciated 12% in the last year, and the average analyst target price is $16.44. Also, based on the float the short interest is unimportant and not a worry. The small amount of short interest is 2.2%. GLW Payout Ratio TTM ChartGLW Payout Ratio TTM data by YCharts At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @RobertWeinstein This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Robert Weinstein is an active trader focusing on the psychological importance of risk mitigation, emotion and financial behavior of market participants. Robert co-founded the investing blog StockSaints, where he writes a journal about his trading activity and experiences. In addition to TheStreet, Robert also contributes to Real Money Pro, providing real-time trading ideas for stocks, options and futures.

Monday, November 18, 2013

SEC Slams Father, Son for Bilking Terminally Ill Clients

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday charged a father and son in Lexington, S.C., with operating a fraudulent investment program designed to illegally profit from the deaths of terminally ill individuals.

The SEC alleges that Benjamin S. Staples and his son Benjamin O. Staples deceived brokerage firms and bond issuers and made at least $6.5 million in profits by lying about the ownership interest in bonds they purchased in joint brokerage accounts opened with people facing imminent death who were concerned about affording the high costs of a funeral.

The Stapleses recruited the terminally ill individuals by offering to pay their funeral expenses if they agreed to open the joint accounts and sign documents that relinquished their ownership rights to the accounts or any assets in them, the SEC says.

“The Stapleses exploited the tragic circumstances surrounding a terminally ill diagnosis and turned the misfortune of others into a profit-making enterprise for themselves,” said Kenneth Israel, director of the SEC’s Salt Lake Regional Office that investigated the case, in a statement. “The Stapleses deceived brokerage firms and bond issuers by casting themselves as survivors of a joint ownership situation when the deceased had no legal ties to the bonds at all.”

According to the SEC’s complaint filed in federal court in Columbia, S.C., once a joint account was opened and they had sole control, the Stapleses purchased discounted corporate bonds containing a “survivor’s option” that allowed them to redeem the bonds for the full principal amount prior to maturity if a joint owner of the bond dies.

“Following the death of one of their terminally ill participants, the Stapleses redeemed the bonds early by citing the survivor’s option to the brokerage firm and misrepresenting that the deceased individual had ownership rights to the bond,” the SEC says. “Their illicit profit was the difference between the discounted price of the bonds they purchased and the full principal amount they obtained when redeeming the bonds early.”

According to the SEC’s complaint, the Stapleses operated what they called the Estate Assistance Program from early 2008 to mid-2012. They recruited at least 44 individuals into the program and purchased approximately $26.5 million in bonds from at least 35 issuers. The Stapleses required the terminally ill individuals to sign three documents: an application to open a joint brokerage account with them, an estate assistance agreement, and a participant letter. The latter two documents required the participant to relinquish any ownership interest in the assets in the joint account, including the bonds that the Stapleses later purchased. /* .premium-promo { border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 200px; float: left; } .premium-promo li, .premium-promo ul { list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .premium-promo li { margin: 0 0 10px; padding: 0 0 10px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #ddd; } .premium-promo h3 { text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 11px; } .premium-promo h4 { font-size: 16px; } .premium-promo a { text-decoration: none !important; } .premium-promo .btn { background: #0069a1; border-radius: 4px; display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; clear: both; color: #fff; font-weight: bold; } .premium-promo .btn:hover { background: #034c92; } */ The SEC alleges that after a participant died, the Stapleses wrote a letter to the brokerage firm where the joint account was held and asked that the bonds be redeemed under the survivor’s option.

When cashing in after a client's death, “The Stapleses did not inform the brokerage firms or bond issuers that the deceased program participants had signed the estate assistance agreements and participant letters relinquishing all ownership interest in the bonds,” the SEC states.

The SEC says that it is seeking disgorgement of ill-gotten gains plus prejudgment interest, financial penalties and permanent injunctions. The SEC’s complaint names a different son of Ben S. Staples — Brian Staples, also of Lexington, S.C. — as a relief defendant for the purposes of recovering $400,000 in illicit profits that were transferred to him. Brian Staples had no active role in the scheme.

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Check out CCOs Under Fire: When Enforcers Get Burned by Regulators on ThinkAdvisor.

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Who Wins after EPA Cuts Biofuel Requirements?

As expected, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued proposed rules on Friday to reduce the amount of ethanol required to be blended with gasoline in 2014. After a 60-day comment period the EPA will publish final rules that may incorporate some of the comments it receives. The proposed reduction represent a huge win for oil refiners and a nasty blow to ethanol producers and farmers.

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandated production and blending of 18.15 billion gallons of biofuels in the U.S. motor fuel supply for 2014. Of that total, 14.4 billion gallons was slated to be corn-based ethanol. The EPA's proposed rules cut the total amount of required renewable biofuels to 15.21 billion gallons, of which 12.7 billion to 13.2 billion gallons would be corn-based ethanol.

When the 2007 law was enacted, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that demand for gasoline would reach 154 billion gallons in 2014. The most recent estimate sets demand at just 133 billion gallons.

That means that the mandated supply total of 15.21 billion gallons would exceed 10% of all the motor fuel expected to be sold in the U.S. next year. Thus refiners are faced with making a fuel blend that is more than 10% ethanol or buying renewable fuel credits, called RINs, to offset the amount of renewable fuel they did not mix with their gasoline. This is what the industry calls the "blend wall."

The EPA claims it has the authority under the 2007 law to scale back the mandated volumes in certain situations, including inadequate supply or economic hardship, but an ethanol industry group, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), disputes that and has fought hard to retain the original volumes. The association managed to get the EPA to approve an ethanol blend of 15% (E15) for use in U.S. cars, but adoption of E15 has been virtually non-existent because consumers won't buy it.

Who wins and who loses? Valero Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is both an oil refiner and an ethanol producer. In its most quarter, the company's ethanol segment posted operating income of $113 million compared with a loss of $73 million in the same period last year. That amounts to about 7% of the company's total quarterly operating income of $1.7 billion. prices led to better margins. In general, all refiners win because the they won't be required to buy RINs to offset lower ethanol blending.

Ethanol producers and farmers are the losers and the RFA is steaming mad. The group claims that the "EPA is proposing to place the nation's renewable energy policy in the hands of the oil companies." Producers like Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX), and The Andersons Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE) don't have an oil refining business to offset the proposed cuts to ethanol volumes.

What's worse for the producers is that in order to grow at a time when U.S. fuel consumption is falling the only option available is to blend more ethanol with gasoline. But E15 has flopped and the 85% ethanol blend (E85) is only a very modest success in the corn-growing regions of the U.S. Older cars cannot use E15 and gas stations need to install new tanks and pumps to handle E85. The old cars will eventually disappear and E85 won't help unless it can be made more widely available, but these solutions do nothing for farmers and ethanol producers right now.

To underscore the point, Valero stock closed up about 0.4% on Friday night and rose another 0.2% in after-hours trading to $43.08 in a 52-week range of $27.17 to 44.76.

ADM stock fell 3.4% in Friday trading to close at $40.56 in a 52-week range of $25.05 to $42.14. The stock lost another 0.4% in after-hours trading.

The Andersons' shares fell 3% on Friday to close at $80.91 in a 52-week range of $40.99 to $84.51.

Pacific Ethanol closed up 15.5% at $2.78 in a 52-week range of $2.33 to $7.05. Shares rose another 2.2% in after-hours trading. The stock price is still about $1.00 below its level before Pacific Ethanol reported third-quarter results on November 6th. Yesterday's bounce was off the 52-week low set Thursday.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Dual ETF Momentum Portfolio – September Update

In February I announced a new "Dual ETF Momentum" spreadsheet. The idea was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum.

The spreadsheet is available on Scott's Investment's here. The objective of the spreadsheet is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an "Invested" signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum.

Relative momentum is gauged by the 12 month total returns of each ETF. The 12 month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a "cash" filter) in the form of iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). In order to have an "Invested" signal the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total returns greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns.

I have added an "average" return signal for each ETF on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the "average" return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12 ("3/6/12″) month total returns for each ETF. The "invested" signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF.

Using Portfolio123 I backtested a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score used above. You can view the backtest results in June's update and I will also be posting new test results in the coming days.

Below are the four portfolios along with current signals:



Return data courtesy of Finviz
Equity Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
US Equities VTI Invested Invested
International Equities VEU
Cash SHY
Credit Risk Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
High Yield Bond HYG Invested Invested
Interm Credit Bond CIU
Cash SHY
Real-Estate Risk Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
Equity REIT VNQ Invested
Mortgage REIT REM
Cash SHY Invested
Economic Stress Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
Gold GLD
Long-term Treasuries TLT
Cash SHY Invested Invested

US equities are leading international equities, high yield bonds lead credit bonds, and cash leads gold and long-term treasuries. Equity REITs lead mortgage REITs and cash based on 1 year returns, while cash leads both equity and mortgage REITs based on the average of 3/6/12 month returns.  This is the same result as last month.

As an added bonus, the spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission-free ETFs for TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard. It is important to note that each broker may have additional trade restrictions and the terms of their commission-free ETFs could change in the future

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

CNBC: Whistleblowers cite hazards at VA centers

At the height of the American people's discontent and frustration with what seemed to be endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, another bombshell dropped.

The very people who were making the ultimate sacrifice to fight for our freedoms were being neglected when they needed us most.

A 2007 Washington Post investigation into the lack of care at Walter Reed Army Medical Center caused outrage.

The expose began like this:

"Behind the door of Army Spec. Jeremy Duncan's room, part of the wall is torn and hangs in the air, weighted down with black mold."

More recently, CNBC obtained images of another pocket of black mold invading another VA medical center. A Pittsburgh Veterans Administration employee and whistleblower says the black mold is in an air handler located in a nuclear medicine area where cancer patients get therapy.

DEATH & DISHONOR: Crisis at the VA -- a CNBC investigation

Black mold, though, is not the worst of it.

Our investigation began at that Pittsburgh VA hospital where at least five veterans died following a Legionnaire's outbreak in 2011 due to, according to the Office of the Inspector General, systemic failures at the Veterans Administration.

Legionella is a bacteria found in water that could result in Legionnaire's disease which is curable through antibiotics. It could prove fatal, though, if untreated. And it did for at least half a dozen veterans.

We visited that VA two years after the outbreak and found open sewer pits from which cockroaches and other bugs crawl out of -- adjacent to the radiation therapy room where patients with compromised immune systems get treatment.

A Pittsburgh VA employee also confirmed that construction projects are still going on above, below, and adjacent to operating rooms where kidney, liver, and heart transplants, among other procedures, are being performed.

Our whistleblower told us that the facility was plagued with problems, like crumbling infrastructure, leaking pipes, and mold ! — all of which we witnessed ourselves.

The VA told us that it is committed to providing Veterans the best care anywhere and our goal is to provide that care in a safe environment. VA Pittsburgh takes this issue very seriously, and continues to take steps to improve the care provided here.

The VA Hospital in Jackson, Miss., also has its share of whistleblowers -- the most of any facility to date.

One of them is Dr. Phyllis Hollenbeck, who still works there. At a Congressional hearing in September she said:

"Essentially everything that happens in primary care at the Jackson VA can be included under the umbrella of being unethical, illegal, heartbreaking and life threatening for the veterans, and everything in the care of the veterans starts in primary care."

Hollenbeck's claims are substantiated by an independent federal watchdog called the Office of Special Counsel -- or OSC -- which has raised concerns about unsanitary conditions, understaffing and the illegal prescribing of narcotics by nurse practitioners, among other things, at the Jackson VA.

We spoke with several former surgeons at that VA who told us that finding other patients' bones, blood and tissue in surgical instruments was a common occurrence.

The VA told us that it has invested more than a million dollars into state-of-the-art reprocessing equipment at the Jackson hospital to ensure proper cleaning and sterilization, and has transitioned to the use of more disposable devices when those are available. After receiving the March 18 letter, VA initiated a quality of care review of the sterile processing services at the facility. The review found that the VA now utilizes effective systemic processes to safely perform the re-processing of all critical and semi-critical reusable medical equipment in the facility.

C.J. Stewart, a Purple Heart recipient who was critically injured in Afghanistan, has had 40 surgeries at Walter Reed Army Medical Center, which he said, provided great care.

But! now that! he is medically retired, meaning he seeks treatment outside of the military hospital system, he told us he had to wait over a year to even see a doctor in Jackson.

Vietnam War Veteran Bob Slater says the Jackson VA kept him in the dark for four years about having kidney disease -- which he only found out when he was able to access his medical records online.

Last year, officials at this VA also received tens of thousands of dollars in bonuses.

In Atlanta, an OIG investigation published this year concluded that staff failed to monitor patients at the Atlanta VA facility. Three veterans had committed suicide there, and another suffocated himself in a bathroom at the VA during the Inspector General's investigation.

In Gainesville, Fla., we accompanied a current employee, who is a veteran himself, to a doctor's appointment with hidden cameras. We witnessed extremely long wait times for appointments, especially for those in the emergency room.

The Gainesville VA Medical Center for its part, has moved to improve wait time. It recently concluded a Systems Redesign team to improve flow from the emergency department through the inpatient units. The VA says the outcome was that the team was able to reduce the wait time in the emergency department for psychiatry and medicine admissions.

Hot High Tech Companies To Invest In 2014

On one patient care floor, where veterans receive wound care after orthopedic surgery, there was no flooring at all. The floors were stripped leaving them sticky and dirty. The VA Employee who took us around said it had been like that for at least two years.

The Gainesville VA also happens to have the biggest budget and largest patient population of any VA in the country.

By June of this year, they had already spent about 850 million dollars.

Thomas Wisnieski, who became the Network Director of the North Florida/South Georgia Veterans Hea! lth Syste! m in April 2012, got almost $35,000 in bonuses over the past three years.

Our Gainesville whistleblower also told us that disabled veterans, including those who are blind, amputees, and patients on dialysis are constantly being denied special mode of transportation---which means no way of even getting to the VA for treatment.

"You could have a veteran that is an amputee, both legs . . . if he or she is not in a wheelchair and the doctor says they're not permanently in a wheelchair, they will not transport that patient," he said.

In August of 2012, the office of the inspector general released a report about the Villages Outpatient Clinic, which is part of the Gainesville VA. The report said primary care, mental health and specialty care were not provided as planned. They also found a lack of oversight and millions in funds spent inefficiently; on things like staff salaries and benefits.

The OIG also released a report this year about the VA in Memphis, Tennessee. The inspection took place after an allegation of inadequate patient care which resulted in patients dying.

The VA said it has addressed the recommendations made by the Inspector General and that the physician involved in the care of two of the patients referenced in the report no longer works there. It also stated that it continues to work in good faith to further improve the quality of care and operational efficiency within our Emergency Department.

The inspector general substantiated that one patient was administered a medication despite a documented drug allergy and had a fatal reaction. Another patient was found unresponsive after being administered multiple sedating drugs, and a third patient had critically high blood pressure but was not monitored---and experienced bleeding in the brain.

Chairman Miller says there are VAs where things seem to work just fine, with great employees who truly care for the veterans.

But he also insists that there are far too many facilities where veterans and thei! r familie! s are neglected:

"Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, now Columbia South Carolina, Augusta Georgia, and unfortunately these are not just minor errors and issues. These are issues that have caused serious harm to patients including death"

CNBC's Dina Gusovsky visited an amputee unit at Walter Reed in 2008. There seemed to have been major changes after the media shed light on issues there, she found. Many people lost their jobs as a result.

In fact, Afghanistan War veteran C.J. Stewart says of the difference between Walter Reed and the Jackson VA:

"I guess the most frustrating part for me is I was at a military hospital where these hiccups did not happen … Here, no one is held accountable . . . there's no consequences for the ones that do mess up."

Contact the authors on Twitter: @CNBCInvestigate and @DinaGusovsky.

© CNBC is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.